A First-Time MVP Could Mean Big Value
One of the dreams of everyone collecting modern football cards is that the prized player in their collection achieves national recognition and claims the public spotlight. There is no bigger opportunity for that than playing in the Big Game, and the greatest chance to maximize card value comes with not just being on the winning team but being the game’s MVP. So, whose cards today may be worth a lot more come Monday? And how much more?
MVP of the Big Game is mostly a quarterback award, though not quite to the extent that the MVP of the NFL is. In games played this century (not including the Big Game played in 2000 that capped the 1999 season), 15 of 24 MVPs have been the winning QB. That’s a 62.5% probability that the winner of the award will be either Patrick Mahomes (already a three-time winner) or Jalen Hurts. And 20 of the 24 have been offensive players (83.3%). Five wide receivers have won this century. No running back has won.
Saquon Barkley is Actually the Eagles’ MVP Favorite
Fear not, holder of Saquon Barkley’s rookie card. There hasn’t been a 2,000-yard rusher tearing up the playoffs like Barkley this century, either. Barkley is a special type. In fact, he’s the favorite for MVP in the event the Eagles win (+260 vs. +350 for Hurts, according to DraftKings odds at the time of this writing). The two top receivers listed are both Chiefs (Travis Kelce at +1500 and Xavier Worthy +2500). The top Eagles receiver is A.J. Brown (+3500), which isn’t a shock given how run-dominant the team has generally been (29 of their 53 offensive touchdowns have come via the ground). The only defensive player listed is Kansas City’s Chris Jones (+6000); Jones is likely a future Hall of Famer.
Another MVP for Mahomes isn’t going to have the price impact that Hurts winning would have. But looking at what happened to Mahomes cards after his first Big Game MVP could provide a possible range of outcomes should Hurts emerge with the coveted hardware. According to CardLadder, Mahomes’ priciest cards tripled after claiming the biggest prize from the ultimate game for the first time in the 2019 season. His less expensive cards appreciated even more — about 900%.
2004 Topps Football #350 Eli Manning RC
But Mahomes was the emerging star in football when he won the Big Game MVP. Hurts has had a relatively quiet year. His winning would be more akin to Eli Manning earning the MVP in beating the Patriots to cap the 2007 season. His rookie card investors saw a 20-70% boost in value, depending on the card. Note that we assessed cards in the months before and after the game MVP honors were bestowed.
What happens when a non-QB offensive player wins the award? In a word, Yahtzee! The last non-QB offensive MVP was Cooper Kupp in the 2021 season. Non-QB cards are typically much less expensive than QBs in limited print runs and in high grades, so we looked at Kupp’s rookie autos /99 in Gem Mint condition. Kupp’s MVP award raised his prices by 512%. That’s what owners of similar Barkley rookies should expect if he matches Kupp’s feat.
