Is there a Contract/Card Connection?
With his 15-year deal worth at least $765 million from the Mets, Juan Soto became the highest-paid athlete in the history of North American sports.
The immediate question for many wasn’t what he means to the New York lineup or how he improves the Club’s odds of winning its first World Series championship in nearly 40 years. It was, “What are his baseball cards now worth?”
All year, we heard about the battle for collecting supremacy in the modern card market being a battle between Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge. But with a total contract value surpassing both, the question today is whether the most valuable player in the eyes of the MLB marketplace should have the most valuable cards.
Buyers React Quickly to News
In the 24-hour period after the trade, Soto’s cards generated $14,700 in sales. That’s more than the combined sales of Ohtani, Judge, and Fernando Tatis Jr. (to pick another hot commodity) in the same period, according to Card Ladder. Soto also just passed Judge in total market cap for his cards ($16.14 million), trailing only Mike Trout ($42.95 million) and Ohtani ($32.34) among active MLB players.
Note that Soto’s market cap comprises 133 cards vs. 245 for Trout.
According to Card Ladder, Soto’s cards have increased 10.2% in the past year. But in just the 24-hour period after the signing, Soto’s market cap grew a whopping 5.1% (an annual rate of 1,825%).
It should hardly be surprising that Soto is so highly regarded by collectors. His company in hitting homers and drawing walks through his age-25 season are New York legends Mickey Mantle and Mel Ott. The left-handed hitter he’s most compared with is Ted Williams, considered by many historians the greatest batsman of all time.
Historic Home Run Pace
Looking forward. Soto has not even reached his peak power years, typically around age 28. Great hitters decline slowly and even defy aging curves. Williams didn’t have an age 26 season due to WWII and then missed almost all of his age-33 and 34 seasons to the Korean War as a fighter pilot. Yet from ages 27-to-39, Williams averaged 39 home runs per 162 games playing home games at Fenway Park, which suppresses left-handed power. If Soto averages only 30 homers per season for those same ages, including his age-26 season this year, he’ll surpass 600 career-long balls.
But what if his power increases? Hank Aaron’s did after his age 25 season, when he averaged 38 homers per year through age 39. If Soto matches that, he’ll have 732 homers with a year remaining on his Mets deal to shoot for Aaron’s magical 755 taters. That’s nearly as many as the millions he’ll be paid.
In addition, Soto will be playing in the biggest market for the richest owner who seems determined to field a perennial championship contender, increasing the odds of winning Most Valuable Player Awards and collecting additional World Series rings.
Baseball cards are future nostalgia. Imagining tomorrow’s Hall of Fame plaques, you can make an easy case that today’s card buyers are purchasing a piece of timeless history when they add a Soto card to their collections.
