Evaluating 2025’s Rookie Landing Spots
The NFL Draft is behind us. Now we look ahead to forecasting the game’s top skill position prospects based on their new environments. In the NFL, the production players need to emerge as stars and boost their card value has less to do with individual skill than in any other sport. In the ultimate team game, productivity depends on how coaches use the players and how well teammates create opportunities for success.
In a sense, investing in a rookie is like buying real estate — location, location, location. So let’s look at the top prospects and some sleepers with that top of mind, as well as historic data on hit rates relative to draft order.
Quarterbacks
There probably has never been less buzz about a top overall pick than Cam Ward (Titans). Brian Callahan is his head coach, and he helped develop Joe Burrow. Looking at history this century, 19 QBs have been drafted No. 1 overall with 13 (68%) making at least one Pro Bowl. Of those, two have won a Super Bowl, and one (Cam Newton) was an MVP.
The 25th overall pick, Jaxson Dart (Giants), does have a path to starting in 2025 and a top five WR in Malik Nabers. Just seven of 22 QBs selected No. 20 to No. 40 overall have made a Pro Bowl (32%). Investors can hope Dart, who did lead the nation in yards per passing attempt in the SEC, can turn into a Jordan Love-level QB with the starting timeline happening much more quickly. With Nabers and a coach in Brian Daboll who did develop an MVP-caliber QB in Josh Allen, the environment is at least a B+.
The story of the draft was the fall of Shedeur Sanders all the way into the fifth round. His landing spot in Cleveland gives him a chance to start early in his career., but we have to temper that with historical data. This century, 10 of 117 QBs drafted after round three have made a Pro Bowl (8.5%). Just five have objectively been decent starters (4%).
Wide Receivers
Travis Hunter (Jaguars) is going to be used primarily as a wide receiver, according to his head coach. There have only been two WRs drafted No. 2 overall this century (no No. 1 overall pick): Charles Rodgers and Calvin Johnson (both oddly by Detroit). Hunter started the year as the WR55 in fantasy and should rise now to about WR20. He has top competition opposite him in second-year man Brian Thomas, but there is no other serious threat for targets. His coach (Liam Coen) made Baker Mayfield super productive. So hold on to your Trevor Lawrence cards given this supporting cast.
The other first-round wide receivers did not land in good spots. Tetairoa McMillen (Panthers) is considered a slower, weaker Mike Evans by some scouts, but QB Bryce Young has an uncertain future. Emeka Ebuka (Bucs) is a savvy technician and has the Ohio State pedigree that has proven so predictive, but he’s boxed out of slot snaps by Chris Godwin and also has Evans to contend with. These are C- or worse environments.
The fourth first-round WR, Matthew Golden (No. 23 overall), has a clear path to be the alpha for the Packers. Even if you don’t buy into Love yet as a true franchise QB, this seems like a perfect landing spot for Golden. While he is sub-200 pounds, he ran a 4.29 40 and, according to Dane Brugler of The Athletic, “doesn’t play small” and is a good route runner. This century, 13 of 45 WRs drafted between 20 and 30 have made a Pro Bowl (29%).
Running Backs
No. 6 overall pick Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) was just the 18th RB this century drafted in the top 10 picks, and 11 of the prior 17 made a Pro Bowl (65%). Four are either in or destined for the Hall of Fame. Environment matters less at running back than any other position. Barry Sanders didn’t even need a top offensive line to dominate. It’s paramount that the RB is tethered to a coach who believes in a bell cow back who dominates touches. Jeanty has that with Pete Carroll.
The next RB drafted is in a full-fledged committee. The Chargers gave No. 22 pick Omarion Hampton a timeshare with Najee Harris, a priority free agent signing. Harris plays at age 27 this year and has never rushed for less than 1,000 yards. This is a D- landing spot for a runner we had high hopes for (RB19 in fantasy football in March).
The back with the best landing spot is former Ohio State Buckeye Treveyon Henderson (Patriots). Sure, he has competition from Rhamondre Stevenson, but this coaching staff had nothing to do with drafting and signing Stevenson. They had everything to do with drafting Henderson, who led the Big 10 in yards per rush. With an offensive line-heavy draft and a possible franchise QB in tow, this landing spot is at least a B+. Note that 16 of 64 second-round RBs this century made a Pro Bowl (25%), vs. 29 of 55 in Round 1 (53%).
Tight End
There’s historically little connection between where a tight end is drafted and production. It’s such a low bar to make a Pro Bowl at the position that we focus here on yards. Since 2000, five first-round TEs have had 1,000-yard receiving seasons. Three second-round TEs did it, and eight after being drafted in Round 3 or later (including Travis Kelce and George Kittle).
It’s hard to get excited about the landing spots of rare top-15 overall tight ends Colston Loveland (10th to the Bears) and Tyler Warren (14th to the Colts). There is way too much competition for targets in Chicago to get excited about Loveland sight unseen, including from fellow tight end Cole Kmet. No one knows who Warren’s QB is going to be in 2025, but it probably won’t be either Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson in 2026. These are most charitably C- landing spots.
The TE with the landing spot I like best, drafted Round 2, is Terrance Ferguson (Rams). He has a great offensive mastermind in Sean McVay and a future Hall of Fame QB in Matthew Stafford for at least two or three more seasons. Teams will be so preoccupied with stopping WRs Davante Adams and Puka Nacua that Henderson will mostly be matched up against linebackers.
