The Young Stars Already Turning Heads
Nothing in sports sneaks up on us like the quarter turn in baseball. We go from, “It’s so early that these stats don’t mean anything” to, “Wait, the season is 25% over?” in what feels like a flash.
With 40 games in the books, it’s time to assess how players vying for the major awards are performing. But actual stats are just one piece of the puzzle. With the MLB‘s Statcast radar technology informing the data on Baseball Savant, we also have expected stats. These metrics calculate offensive and pitching performance based on strikeouts, walks, contact quality and trajectory.
Let’s look at the Rookie of the Year race in both leagues. This also gives some insight into which Bowman Red Rookie players collectors should be eying for the Bowman Red Rookie Redemption that kicked off with the release of 2025 Bowman Baseball.
The odds cited here are courtesy of Vegas Insider and through May 12. Note that these odds can change radically with news and bets placed.
National League
Luisangel Acuña: Mets, +450
New York has made up for its lack of MVPs (zero in its history) with six Rookie of the Year Award winners. But Acuna being the favorite shows how weak the NL field is at the quarter turn. Through 40 games, he did not record a single barrel (average is about 7%). He’s an 18th percentile hitter in expected stats. His steals are his calling card. Acuña is not a highly rated fielder, according to the eye in the sky. .
Agustin Ramirez: Marlins, +400
He’s been great since his promotion, but in a small sample. His barrel rate on batted balls is nearly twice average at 13.5%, and his low K% makes him about twice league average in barrel rate per plate appearance, too. Unsurprisingly, he’s hit much better at DH than when tasked with the burden of catching.
Dylan Crews: Nationals, +550
He’s been very unlucky. Statcast says he’s earned an average of .255 with a slugging of .459 — perfectly reasonable for a top overall prospect. His actual average is .179 with a .314 slugging. He is on pace for 20 homers and 40 steals. Imagine what those numbers would be if his luck improved. Crews is the fastest baserunner in MLB and a top fielder. Bottom line: He should not be viewed as a disappointment. Expect him to finish like Jackson Chourio in 2024.
Roki Sasaki: Dodgers, +550
He’s been disappointing and also very lucky with an expected ERA over 6.00. Sasaki’s K% is half the rate we were led to believe is possible, ranking in the 11th percentile. The fastball is very hittable despite solid velocity (just 10.1% whiffs, about half an average rate). He has very low revs so his fastball (10th percentile in RPMs); so that pitch doesn’t ride up in the zone to complement the split finger down and away.
AJ Smith-Shawer: Braves, +700
He ranks among the luckiest pitchers in baseball according to Statcast with an expected ERA based on Ks, walks and contact quality allowed of 5.15. He’s listed this well in odds because of his actual ERA, 2.75, in the sampled period.
Note that since 2010, eight award winners were not yet in MLB at this stage of the season. That’s out of 30, translating to a 27% chance the ultimate Rookie of the Year is not yet promoted. That makes top overall pitching prospect Bubba Chandler (Pirates, +1200) and the recently promoted Jordan Lawler (Diamondbacks, +1000) very live choices.
American League
Jacob Wilson: Athletics, +105
He’s basically the new Luis Arráez. Wilson rarely strikes out and is a bat-to-ball guy who could win a batting title, which would lock up the award. His expected batting average is 87th percentile at .317. Wilson’s K% is 5.5%, about 18 points better than average. The bat speed is the lowest in baseball at 63.2 mph and we know that each increase of mph in bat speed increases home run probability on a well-struck fly ball by 18%. Wilson has miles to go to get to just average in that stat. (Note that Wilson had his first two-homer game on May 13.)
Kristian Campbell: Red Sox, +350
He’s slumped lately but still is 63rd percentile at the quarter turn in expected hitting. He’s buoyed by a very good Red Sox lineup that should help him in the counting stats that voters love.
Jasson Dominguez: Yankees, +400
He had a signature game with three homers in Sacramento. But his expected stats at the quarter turn were a .236 average with a .404 slugging. Dominguez’s hard-hit rate is above 50%, but he’s 11th percentile in whiffs and 7th percentile in Ks. Defensively, the radar rates him as poorly as Yankees fans feared in Spring Training (the worst in Outs Above Average).
Chandler Simpson: Rays, +2000
His 98th percentile speed is his calling card. Simpson’s defensive stats have been well below average according to the radar, too, albeit in a very small sample size. There’s no power in his game with bat speed at the Wilson level.
Tomoyuki Sugano: Orioles, +2000
His actual ERA is two runs better than expected, meaning he’s been very lucky according to the radar. Sugano’s expected slugging allowed is an unsightly .503 (actual .387). He pitches to contact and has top control (92nd percentile in walk rate). But he’s been defying gravity, and gravity always wins.
Looking at this field, the odds seem a lot higher than 27% that the eventual AL Rookie of the Year isn’t up yet (again, that’s been the case with eight of the last 30 winners across both leagues). That makes top overall Minor League prospect Roman Anthony (Red Sox) probably more likely than his listed odds of 20-to-1. But keep an eye on last year’s sixth-overall pick Jac Cagliaone (Royals), who is just crushing Double-A, and who seems ready for a promotion within a year of being drafted — more common in recent years than ever before. Cagliaone’s just 50-to-1 to win, according to the oddsmakers. He has top-of-the-scale, 80-grade power.
