Who’s Leading the Pack?
Nothing in sports sneaks up on us like the quarter turn in baseball. We go from, “It’s so early that these stats don’t mean anything” to, “Wait, the season is 25% over?” in what feels like a flash.
With 40 games in the books, it’s time to assess how players vying for the major awards are performing. But actual stats are just one piece of the puzzle. With the MLB’s Statcast radar technology informing the data on Baseball Savant, we also have expected stats. These metrics calculate offensive and pitching performance based on strikeouts, walks, contact quality and trajectory.
We’ll start with the MVP race in both leagues before moving on to the Rookie of the Year competitions. The odds cited are courtesy of Vegas Insider and through May 12. Note that these odds can change radically with news and bets placed.
National League
Shohei Ohtani: Dodgers, +175
The betting market is saying that Ohtani will become just the second DH to win the MVP award, after becoming the first last year. It’s unknown the extent to which Ohtani pitching in 2025 is built into these odds. But he hasn’t pitched in 600 days at the time of this writing and has no timetable for a return.
A year after becoming MLB’s first-ever 50/50 homer/steal player, his full-season pace at the quarter turn was 51 homers and 43 steals. As for the expected stats, he leads the NL in xwOBA, the all-encompassing offensive stat, at .484 (about 150 points over average).
Fernando Tatis: Padres, +300
Tatis, not Ohtani, actually leads the NL in Wins Above Replacement (2.9), a cheat code for award voters. That’s more WAR than he had last year in 102 games. If you back out the possibility of pitching for Ohtani, Tatis reasonably could be the favorite.
Kyle Tucker: Cubs, +400
His new home park is a great handicap for the lefty-hitting Tucker. He had three homers there through the first 40 games of the season (19 at Wrigley Field). Only eight lefties in Cubs history have a 30-homer season. Tucker is actually much better in expected stats, which are park neutral, ranking in the 96th percentile.
Corbin Carroll: Diamondbacks, +550
Carroll is a 94th percentile expected hitter, the same as his actual fielding, and he’s created the most baserunning value in the league. His actual hitting is depressing his WAR well below that of Tatis, however.
Pete Alonso: Mets, +1100
The Mets have never had an MVP. Alonso is the second best NL hitter in expected stats and is leading all loop hitters in doubles and RBI after 40 games. He’s hitting a stunning 95% over league average (measured by OPS, on-base plus slugging, adjusted for ballpark).
Note that Juan Soto (Mets) is the third-best hitter in expected wOBA, Freddie Freeman (Dodgers, who has missed time) ranks fourth, and Kyle Schwarber (Phillies, another DH) fifth.
American League
Aaron Judge: Yankees, minus-2000
His odds seem like a misprint. You have to bet $2,000 to win $100 on Judge being AL MVP. But how can you argue? There’s no one else even in the same area code as Judge right now. He’s the game’s best real and expected hitter. A third MVP would basically guarantee the Hall of Fame — incredible given his late career start (age 25).
Bobby Witt: Royals, +1200
He’s the same player as last year except less actual and expected power. But given his 83rd percentile bat speed, he has a 40-homer season in him and could do that prorated at any time. Witt unfortunately has to contend with Judge at the peak of his powers.
Corey Seager: Rangers, +5000
Team success is no longer a primary consideration, so the disappointing Rangers are not a major hindrance. But Seager’s constant problem is that he can’t stay healthy for a full season. The injury bug has bitten him again in 2025. Statcast also says Seager is a poor fielder and baserunner.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr: Blue Jays, +5000
He’s been a little unlucky according to Statcast but just doesn’t have the launch angle to translate his bat speed and exit velocity into a commensurate number of homers. He did it once, when he tied for the league lead with 48. But his fly-ball rate and pull rate are both below league average, making even 30 homers a real struggle.
Alex Bregman: Red Sox, +6000
Basically only an injury can stop Judge. If the unthinkable happens, Bregman seems well positioned to become a top alternative. He’s having his best offensive season since 2019, and he plays in the perfect park for him in Boston. His expected stats are merely good, not great like his actual ones. Bregman is the anti-Guerrero, with ideal launch angle, fly-ball and, especially, pull rates.
After Judge, the top graded hitters by Statcast metrics are mostly surprises. Jonathan Aranda, who platoons for the Rays, is second (.421), and Ben Rice (Yankees, .413) and Wilyer Abreau (Red Sox, .411) occupy the four and five spots. A third Red Sox player, Rafael Devers, is second (.415).
