Nationals Defy Odds, Land No. 1 Selection
The 2024 Bowman Draft Baseball set was released just one week ago, but it’s never too early to look ahead to the top prospects for next July’s draft.
On Wednesday, MLB held its annual lottery to determine the draft order. The Washington Nationals defied the odds—they had a 10.2% chance of winning the lottery¬—and landed the No. 1 overall selection for the third time in the last 16 years.
The Nationals, which won the World Series just five years ago, will now have their pick of the best draft-eligible college players and high school seniors.
According to MLB.com reporter and draft guru Jim Callis, there is not a consensus top pick for the 2025 MLB Draft.
“I think it’s a little more wide open than the past couple drafts have been,” Callis told RIPPED. “I’m interested in seeing how it shakes out. I think we may have more guys jump into the upper half of the first round and the very top of the draft. There are some very good players in the draft. I just don’t think there’s a lot of certainty in the draft, at least not as high of a comfort level at the top than in the previous couple of drafts.”
Oklahoma high school shortstop Ethan Holliday is a good place to start. Callis and his draft colleagues have Holliday as the top prospect on their master list.
“I think he is most peoples’ number one prospect at this point, but he’s not that slam dunk choice,” Callis said. “If we’re going to talk about the Nationals, everybody knew that Bryce Harper was going number one. Holliday’s the best candidate right now, but there are several candidates.”
If the name Holliday sounds familiar, it should. He’s the son of former seven-time MLB All-Star Matt Holliday and younger brother of Baltimore Orioles infielder Jackson Holliday, who was the No. 1 overall selection in the 2022 MLB Draft. A left-handed pure hitter, Ethan has the muscular frame of his dad at about 6-foot-4, 200 pounds.
“He’s so famous that I think fans in general think it’s Ethan Holliday and everybody else, and it’s not that,” Callis said. “It was similar a couple years ago when going into 2021, I think fans perceived it was Kumar Rocker and everybody else. Kumar Rocker was number one, but then everybody else was on a different tier.”
The last time the Nationals selected a teenage left-handed hitter at No. 1 overall was Harper in 2010. That worked out well for the franchise. One year earlier, Washington picked San Diego State hurler Stephen Strasburg at the top of the draft board. Mike Trout was taken 24 picks later by the Los Angeles Angels.
Ethan Holliday is a polished baseball player. Having the Holliday surname never hurts, but the kid can rake at the plate.
“Jackson’s been telling people for two years—and I think scouts would say the same thing—that Ethan was the better player at the same stage of their careers than he was,” Callis said.
Other Potential Top Picks
Callis believes at this point¬—seven months until draft day—that there are four players vying to be selected 1-1.
Along with Holliday, those guys include Texas A&M outfielder Jace LaViolette, UC Santa Barbara pitcher Tyler Bremner, and Florida State pitcher Jamie Arnold.
Holliday and LaViolette will garner more interest from card collectors than Bremner and Arnold due to the volatility of pitchers.
LaViolette, who currently plays center field, has a big-league build at 6-foot-6, 230 pounds.
“He’s that classic right field profile,” Callis said.
The pitchers have solid arms with Bremner possessing the best changeup in the draft.
“Arnold’s got a longer track record of success as a starter than Bremner does,” Callis said. “Arnold’s a left-handed pitcher, where Bremner’s a righty. Bremner probably has a little bit better overall stuff. So, it’s just a matter of which one you like.”
According to Callis, there are a few other players who could see their stock significantly rise between now and draft day.
Seth Hernandez is the top high school pitcher in the draft. The Corona, California, product has explosive stuff with a 98 mph wipeout curveball.
“If you want to just dream on ceilings, he might even have a higher ceiling than Arnold or Bremner,” Callis said.
Kayson Cunningham, a shortstop from Johnson High School in San Antonio, might be the best pure hitter in the draft.
Xavier Neyens has huge left-handed power and a strong arm as a third baseman from Mount Vernon High School in Washington.
University of Arizona outfielder Brendan Summerhill has arguably the best left-handed swing in the draft; he has a chance to be a solid center fielder with solid tools across the board.
Keep an Eye on
One glaring storyline to follow is the talent at Corona High School. Along with Hernandez, two of his teammates, pitcher Billy Carlson and infielder Brady Ebel, could hear their names called in the opening round of the 2025 MLB Draft.
“It could have three first-round picks, which no high school has ever done,” Callis said.
Callis noted the strength of the draft is clearly high school infielders; and overall, the hitters will be more sought after than the pitchers. However, there is some depth with college position players.
“I don’t think any of the college position players of this draft would go ahead of guys like Dylan Crews or Wyatt Langford two years ago or Travis Bazzana and Charlie Condon and Jac Caglianone and JJ Wetherholt and maybe even Nick Kurtz from a year ago,” Callis said. “It’s not a bad crop of college position players, but it doesn’t have the top guys like the last couple years did.”
