Which young stars will take home the big honors?
Baseball card speculation is often indistinguishable from player forecasting. The holy grail we’re chasing is major awards, and chief among them for prospects is the Jackie Robinson Award for Rookie of the Year.
With the MLB Tokyo Series upon us, let’s start in the American League and look at the oddsmakers’ favorites for the AL and NL Rookie of the Year Awards, how the high-stakes fantasy players assess the market, and use some advanced statistics to identify sleepers.
AL Rookie of the Year Prospects
First, let’s look at the favorites, in order up to 20-to-1, to be the 2025 AL Jackie Robinson Award winner:
- Jasson Dominguez (Yankees OF, +380, 137th overall the last week in high-stakes fantasy)
- Roman Anthony (Red Sox OF, +550, 285th)
- Kristian Campbell (Red Sox IF, +800, 301st)
- Jacob Wilson (Athletics SS, +800, 371st)
- Jackson Jobe (Tigers SP, +900, 231st)
- Christian Moore (Angels IF, +1000, 460th)
- Will Wagner (Blue Jays IF, +1200, 540th)
- Coby Mayo (Orioles IF, +1300, 409th)
- Jace Jung (Tigers 3B, +1800, 482nd)
- Tomoyuki Sugano (Orioles SP, +2000, 296th)
- Kumar Rocker (Rangers SP, +2000, 299th)
Dominguez and Wilson are likely starting for their respective teams. Jobe seems locked into a rotation spot.
Fantasy is saying that Sugano and Rocker are underpriced, given they are both expected to break camp in the rotation. Sugano is a lock to log 160 innings for the Orioles if healthy but is 35, and while technically a rookie, voters will probably be less willing to vote for such an old player for this award. He’ll have to keep crushing it like he’s been doing, with a 0.00 ERA and 0.77 WHIP through March 16, though he’s maxing out at about 92 mph.
Rocker is the fifth player drafted in the top 10 overall twice (MLB draft). He’s battled back from injury. Fantasy players like how his fastball was up to 97 mph early in camp. He’s likely to break camp in the rotation for the injury-ravaged Rangers.
Here are some longer shots that seem underpriced:
- Kyle Teel (White Sox C, +4000, 543rd)
- Travis Bazzana (Guardians IF, +5000, 592nd)
- Jac Caglianone (Royals 1B/OF, +5500, 515th)
Teel is a catcher who was a primary target in the Garrett Crochet trade. He’s expected to be an average MLB hitter eventually. He would probably need a weak AL field to contend for the award. You can get his 1st Bowman in PSA 10 for about $10.
Bazzana and Caglianone are the top 2024 MLB Draft picks, with Bazzana going first overall and Caglianone sixth.
Bazzana didn’t help or hurt himself in Spring Training. He’s still slated to be called up at some point in the June-September window. He will have to crush it in MiLB to get promoted early. He set his college home run record and showed an amazing hit tool and command of the strike zone, with twice as many walks as Ks. Bazzana’s 1st Bowman (2024) in PSA 10 sells for under $50 (not autographed).
Caglianone became the talk of Royals camp by blasting three homers in 17 at-bats and hitting over .500 through March 16. He hit 35 home runs for Florida in 2024 and walked 58 times vs. just 26 Ks. He has top-of-the-scale power, and his bat speed in Spring Training (77.3 mph) would rank fourth in MLB (just ahead of Aaron Judge). He’s playing the outfield in camp to give himself another path to the big leagues for Kansas City. Caglianone cards sell for about the same price as Bazzana, with his 1st Bowman in PSA 10 returning $50 in a recent sale.
NL Rookie of the Year Prospects
Turning to the NL, the oddsmakers give Roki Sasaki (Dodgers) and Dylan Crews (Nationals) about equal chances at 3/3.5-to-1, so their chances are already priced in. The same can be said of another player slated for a starting job to begin the season, Matt Shaw (Cubs), at about 4-to-1. You can get his 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome in PSA 10 for under $50.
Here are the rest of the favorites:
- Bubba Chandler (Pirates SP, +900, 306th)
- Jordan Lawlar (Diamondbacks IF, +1100, 392nd)
- Drake Baldwin (Braves C, +1600, 340th)
- Tirso Ornelas (Rangers 3B, +1900, 488th)
Notably, the fantasy players rank the candidates up to 20-to-1, about the same as the oddsmakers, with one minor exception (Drake Baldwin goes about 50 picks ahead of Jordan Lawler even though Baldwin is 16-to-1 and Lawler 11-to-1).
Let’s look at one underpriced longshot in a category that’s almost impossible to forecast:
- Andrew Painter (Phillies SP, +3500, 366th)
Painter throws 100 mph, at least before his elbow injury of a couple of years ago. He was in top form in November when he was named the AFL Pitcher of the Year with 18 Ks and four walks in 15 innings. He’s only logged 125.1 total innings since 2021 due to injuries. So it seems inconceivable that he can pitch even 100 in 2025, in his age 22 season. But look at Crochet last year, who had a similarly unfathomable usage bump and came out of it fine. Painter’s 1st Bowman (2021) in PSA 10 can be had for about $30.
More Topps Baseball
- Los Angeles Dodgers Tokyo Series Exclusive Cards to Collect
- Chicago Cubs Tokyo Series Exclusive Cards to Collect
- The Enduring Allure of Cards from our “Wonder Years”
