Predicting the best of the best for 2025
Baseball card speculation is often indistinguishable from player forecasting. The holy grail we’re chasing is major awards, and chief among them is the league MVP.
With the MLB Tokyo Series upon us, let’s start in the American League and look at the oddsmakers’ favorites for the AL and NL MVPs, how the high-stakes fantasy players assess the market, and use some advanced statistics to identify sleepers.
AL MVP Predictions
First, let’s look at the American League. The overwhelming favorite is Aaron Judge at +310 (or about 3-to-1). But there’s no edge here for card speculators given that Judge has already won the award twice.
Here are the rest of the favorites, in order up to 20-to-1:
- Bobby Witt (Royals, +450, overall NFBC fantasy pick No. 2 the past week)
- Yordan Alvarez (Astros, +600, 18th)
- Gunnar Henderson (Orioles, +750, 9th)
- José Ramírez (Guardians, +1500, 5th)
- Corey Seager (Rangers, +1600, 39th)
- Mike Trout (Angels, +1600, 92nd)
- Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. (Blue Jays, +1700, 10th)
- Julio Rodriguez (Mariners, +2000, 15th)
The fantasy market says that the oddsmakers undervalue Ramírez. Ramírez last year fell one homer short of becoming the second player with a 40-double, 40-homer, 40-steal season. That’s the kind of narrative to win the award. The AL Central Division is expected to be a dogfight, but the Guardians are in a four-team scrum to win it with the White Sox far behind. So overall team quality, to the extent that still matters, shouldn’t be expected to hinder a Ramírez candidacy.
Here are players at least 40-to-1 whose odds should probably be better, with the case for each and current card prices:
- Wyatt Langford (Rangers, +4000, 34th)
- Riley Greene (Tigers, +4500, 103rd)
- Byron Buxton (Twins, +12000, 204th)
Langford is white-hot in fantasy circles. He’s obviously the pick of that forecasting market. There’s more power potential here than he showed last year, given his 84th-percentile bat speed. He’s also a 98th-percentile runner, according to Statcast, which could give him the counting numbers in homers and steals that voters love. His strikeouts and walks are good for any hitter, never mind one who played 2024 at age 22. The Rangers did win the World Series in 2023, as well. Langford’s 2024 Topps Chrome Base Auto rookie card is about $100 on eBay, ungraded.
Greene’s profile as a hitter is virtually indistinguishable from Langford’s. Langford is much faster (Greene is a plus-runner, though it hasn’t translated much into steals). Greene’s overall hitting on contact was about 16.5% better than Langford’s. However, he struck out much more (27.5% to 20.6%). Their odds should be similar, as should their fantasy ADP. The card market views Langford as considerably more attractive, given that Greene’s 2023 Topps Chrome Rookie Auto sells for $100, graded in PSA 10. Basically, you get the slabbed Gem Mint for free relative to Langford.
Buxton, like Trout, is an injury risk, of course. But it makes no sense that Buxton goes over 100 picks later in drafts than Trout. Buxton hit 37% better than league average last year. A healthy Trout is a better hitter than Buxton, no doubt, but Buxton still plays elite centerfield defense while Trout has been moved off the position. That will make Buxton’s defensive Wins Above Replacement (WAR) much higher than Trout’s. Is Trout 7.5 times as likely as Buxton to stay healthy and post a significantly higher WAR? Consider that their WAR numbers were about equal last year, adjusted for games played. Buxton’s rookie auto is also a small fraction of Trout’s, with his 2015 rookie base (non-auto) in a PSA 10 selling for under $20 recently.
NL MVP Predictions
Let’s turn to the 2025 NL MVP favorites. As in the AL with Judge, the overwhelming favorite has already won the award multiple times (three). So there’s no edge in speculating on Shohei Ohtani, who is also the consensus No. 1 overall pick in high-stakes fantasy baseball.
Here’s the rest of the NL MVP field, according to the oddsmakers:
- Juan Soto (Mets, +550, or about 5.5-to-1, sixth overall in NFBC drafts the past week)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres, +800, 12th)
- Mookie Betts (Dodgers, +1200, 13th)
- Bryce Harper (Phillies, +1400, 20th)
- Kyle Tucker (Cubs, +1500, 8th)
- Ronald Acuńa (Braves, +1600, 36th)
Tucker would be the pick of the fantasy market, though there doesn’t seem to be much edge there. Tucker has fallen just short of the magic 30/30 HR/SB season in the past and has a chance to do it this year if he stays healthy. His power exploded in 2024 before his injury, but Wrigley Field is a tough place to hit homers when you’re a lefty hitter. Only eight lefties have had 30-homer seasons at Wrigley, and there’s been only one 40-homer season by a left-handed hitter, 55 years ago (Billy Williams, 42).
At just below our cutoff is Francisco Lindor at +2200, or 22-to-1. His odds should not be worse than Betts’. Both play on a team with a better hitter (Ohtani for Betts, Soto for Lindor), but both are elite defensive players. Only injury prevented Lindor from his second-straight 30/30 HR/SB season, and no shortstop before 2024 ever had more than one of these seasons, never mind two in a row—an ungraded 2015 Chrome Lindor base rookie card sold recently on eBay for under $69.99.
Here are two longer shots who seem underpriced and worthy of speculation:
- Corbin Carroll (Diamondbacks, +2200, 7th)
- Jackson Chourio (Brewers, +3500, 17th)
The fantasy market says that Chourio is the better value here. Last year, he became the youngest player to post a 20/20 HR/SB season. Over his last 63 games, he hit .310 with a full-season pace of 31 homers and 31 steals. Again, he was 20. His Topps 2024 Update rookie card can be had on eBay for under $20 in PSA 10.
Carroll is also a fine pick. He was in the throes of a sophomore slump in 2024 before he exploded in the second half with a .919 OPS and a full-season pace of 43 homers and 43 steals. Overall, however, Carroll hit slightly worse than Chourio (full season), with an expected wOBA of .324 to Chourio’s .328. Carroll’s similar card sells for about 33% more than Chourio’s, but you can make the case they should be in the same price bucket.
