MLB’s best pitchers are looking fierce for 2025
Baseball card speculation is often indistinguishable from player forecasting. The holy grail we’re chasing is major awards, and chief among them for pitchers is the Cy Young Award.
With the MLB Tokyo Series upon us, let’s start in the American League and look at the oddsmakers favorites for the AL and NL Cy Young Awards, how the high-stakes fantasy players assess the market, and use some advanced statistics to identify sleepers.
AL Cy Young Award Prospects
First, let’s look at the American League. Last year’s winner, Tarik Skubal, is the overwhelming favorite at +400 (4-to-1). But there’s little edge here, given that Skubal already has the award priced into his card value.
Here are the other favorites, up to 20-to-1, along with their NFBC high-stakes fantasy ADP the past week:
- Garrett Crochet (Red Sox, +600, 25th overall in fantasy)
- Cole Ragans (Royals, +900, 40th)
- Jacob deGrom (Rangers, +1100, 45th)
- Logan Gilbert (Mariners, +1600, 29th)
- Framber Valdez (Astros, +1700, 63rd)
- Pablo López (Twins, +1700, 71st)
- Shane McClanahan (Rays, +2000, 115th)
The fantasy market is saying that Gilbert has a much better chance than the oddsmakers are listing. Basically, Gilbert should be +600, or 6-to-1, like Crochet, not 16-to-1. Gilbert’s secret weapon is his extension off the mound, which shortens the distance to home plate so much it makes his fastball appear about 3.0 mph faster, or 99.6 mph on average. He also plays in an extreme pitcher’s park. His 2021 Topps Update autographed in a PSA 10 holder sells for about $100.
Here are two longer shots that may be worthy of speculation:
- Hunter Brown (Astros, +2500, 107th)
- Bailey Ober (Twins +10000, 86th)
Brown’s Statcast data was good all year in 2024, even when he was getting rocked. In his last 22 starts, Brown had a 2.31 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP with 26% K/7.3% walk. His slugging allowed for that 22-start sample was .295. Why is he 25-to-1 when he was a top-five pitcher most of last year? Brown’s 2023 Series 1 rookie card in a PSA 10 slab sells for under $40.
Ober is underrated because the radar gun hates him. He throws in the low 90s at 6-foot-9. But again, his extension off the rubber reduces the distance to home plate by over a foot. That makes his four-seamer appear about 95 mph to hitters, not 91.7 (Statcast). Additionally, the whiff rate on his changeup is about 40%. The league hit .154 against it. His expected ERA, according to all the radar contact data, was 3.22. Fantasy baseball agrees he should be 20-to-1 not 100-to-1. Ober’s 2021 Topps Update rookie card is rarely graded — that’s how off the radar he is. You can get one for under $5.
NL Cy Young Award Prospects
Let’s turn to the NL. The prohibitive Cy Young favorite is rapidly emerging as one of the faces of the modern Hobby. So there’s no edge in speculating on Pittsburgh’s Paul Skenes to take home the loop’s ultimate pitching prize.
After Skenes at 3-to-1, here are the 2025 NL Cy Young Award favorites:
- Zack Wheeler (Phillies, +750, 22nd)
- Chris Sale (Braves, +800, 38th)
- Blake Snell (Dodgers, +1000, 49th)
- Corbin Burnes (Diamondbacks, +1200, 35th)
- Dylan Cease (Padres, +1600, 48th)
- Tyler Glasnow (Dodgers, +1700, 81st)
The only real takeaway is that the fantasy market says Glasnow is overpriced. Note that he’s never topped 130 innings in MLB and is pitching his age-31 season.
But here are some longer shots you can argue are not being respected enough by the oddsmakers and, in two cases, by the fantasy market — though in both these cases, the ADP of the pitchers the past week is rapidly rising.
- Sandy Alcantara (Marlins, +2500, 136th)
- Spencer Schwellenbach (Braves, +400, 74th)
- Clay Holmes (Mets, +15000, 187th)
Alcantara has already won the award but is not on a public team. However, he’s rumored to be on the trade block. If he goes to, say, the Mets, that will make him a much more coveted player. In Spring Training, closing in on the 18-month timeframe for a full Tommy John surgery recovery, he was throwing 100 mph again. His 2018 Topps Chrome rookie base card in PSA 10 is only about $25.
Schwellenbach was a key member of the Atlanta rotation as the club overcame injuries to advance to the Postseason. In his last 15 starts of 2024, he compiled a 2.54 ERA while fanning 26.2% of batters. He has upside for a higher strikeout rate, throwing 98 mph with pinpoint control. You can get a 2025 Series 1 autographed rookie card (raw) for about $60. The high-stakes fantasy baseball drafters are saying this is a bargain.
Holmes has jumped about 120 picks the past two weeks and is the Mets Opening Day starter. The argument here is that starters don’t have to pitch many innings now (42 pitchers threw 200+ IP in 2004 vs. just four in 2024), so this is the era of the converted reliever. Last year, Crochet and Seth Lugo were among the success stories in this regard. Holmes has top-shelf stuff (elite 40% whiff rates on slider and sweeper) and has been dominant in Spring Training while facing better-than-average hitters, according to the Baseball-Reference opponent quality metric. Holmes’ autographed first Bowman, raw, is about a $20 card.
